Climate Change: Is it already too late? 🔥
We take a dive into the new IPCC Climate Change report and see what the experts have to say about it.
Hi, Ravdeep here. 👋
Perfunktory is a newsletter that aims to break down trending subjects in the field of Music, Technology, Gaming and Culture as perfunctorily as possible. Keeping it perfunctory helps the discourse to be as candid as it can be.
Sign up below for free. 👇
Imagine this - you’re brought into this world, you take 2-3 years to learn how to walk and say your first words, you spend a significant amount of time at school to learn the basics, you perform well thinking that you have the power to change the world, you work towards your goals and *poof* all of that makes no sense because Climate Change had other plans. YES, this is exactly what most of our lives will look like in a few years!
IPCC released the first part of its much anticipated Sixth Assessment Report on August 9th, 2021. In it, 234 scientists from around the globe summarised the current climate research on how the Earth is changing as temperatures rise and what those changes will mean for the future.
What is the IPCC? 🌲
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), which consists of 195 governments, has emerged as one of the most credible sources of climate science. IPCC members aggregate and agree to the best climate science available globally before publishing. The new IPCC climate change report contains several key findings which we will talk about little later.
What is the Sixth Assessment Report? 🗂
The Sixth Assessment Report focuses on our understanding of how the climate is changing and why (we all know the answer to this!). The report also looks at five scenarios on how the climate could change up to 2100 depending on how we (as humanity) change our emissions. These scenarios are based on best models on our climate that we currently have. You can read the IPCC Press Release here.
Suggestions on how we as humanity can change our emissions in line with the 'good' scenarios is up for discussion in two reports to be released later, which are expected in 2022.
Let’s dive into the key highlights from the report 📝
The World 🌏
It’s not anybody else, it’s us - For the first time, the IPCC states clearly that humans are responsible for the observed warming of the atmosphere, lands and oceans. The IPCC finds Earth’s global surface temperature warmed 1.09℃ between 1850-1900 and the last decade. This is 0.29º C warmer than in the previous IPCC report in 2013. The IPCC recognises the role of natural changes to the Earth’s climate. However, it finds 1.07º C of the 1.09º C warming is due to greenhouse gases associated with human activities. In other words, pretty much all global warming is due to humans.
Higher CO₂ concentrations - Present-day global concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are higher and rising faster than at any time in at least the past two million years. Since the Industrial Revolution, it is at least 10 times faster than at any given point in the last 800,000 years! About 85% of CO₂ emissions are from burning fossil fuels. The remaining 15% are generated from land use change, such as deforestation and degradation.
Extreme weather will keep rising - Hot extremes, heatwaves and heavy rain have also become more frequent and intense across most land regions since 1950, the IPCC confirms. These events have been seen in Australia, parts of the Americas, African forests, Northern Eurasia and Southern Europe.
Oceans have not been spared - Oceans absorb 91% of the energy from the increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. This has led to ocean warming and more marine heatwaves, particularly over the past 15 years. Marine heatwaves cause the mass death of marine life, such as the coral bleaching events. Melting ice sheets and glaciers, along with the expansion of the ocean as it warms, have led to a global mean sea level increase of 0.2 metres between 1901 and 2018 and rising fast. Ocean acidification, caused by the uptake of CO₂, has occurred over all oceans and is reaching depths beyond 2,000m in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic.
Irreversible changes have already occured - The IPCC says if Earth’s climate was stabilised soon, some climate change-induced damage could not be reversed within centuries, or even millennia. For example, global warming of 2℃ this century will lead to average global sea level rise of between two and six metres over 2,000 years, and much more for higher emission scenarios. Globally, glaciers have been synchronously retreating since 1950 and are projected to continue to melt for decades after the global temperature is stabilised.
Permafrost is melting - The prospect of permafrost (frozen soils) in Alaska, Canada, and Russia crossing a tipping point has been widely discussed. The concern is that as frozen ground thaws, large amounts of carbon accumulated over thousands of years from dead plants and animals could be released as they decompose.It projects permafrost areas will release about 66 billion tonnes of CO₂ for each additional degree of warming.
India 🇮🇳
Extreme heatwaves for India which will be hotter as compared to ones in the past.
Floods are set to increase across South Asia and India. India will not only have to predict excessive rainfall due to erratic monsoons but will also have to outline areas experiencing extreme drought.
Snowcaps in the Himalayas will show rapid thawing in the coming decades.
The Indian Ocean which includes the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal has warmed faster than the global average. The sea surface temperature over the Indian ocean is likely to increase by 1-2 degrees Celsius over the next 20 years.
What are the 5 possible scenarios of the future listed in the report? ⏱
SSP1-1.9: The IPCC’s most optimistic scenario, this describes a world where global CO2 emissions are cut to net zero around 2050. Societies switch to more sustainable practices, with focus shifting from economic growth to overall well-being. Investments in education and health go up. Inequality falls. Extreme weather is more common, but the world has dodged the worst impacts of climate change.
SSP1-2.6: In the next-best scenario, global CO2 emissions are cut severely, but not as fast, reaching net-zero after 2050. It imagines the same socioeconomic shifts towards sustainability as SSP1-1.9. But temperatures stabilize around 1.8C higher by the end of the century.
SSP2-4.5: This is a “middle of the road” scenario. CO2 emissions hover around current levels before starting to fall mid-century, but do not reach net-zero by 2100. Socioeconomic factors follow their historic trends, with no notable shifts. Progress toward sustainability is slow, with development and income growing unevenly. In this scenario, temperatures rise 2.7C by the end of the century.
SSP3-7.0: On this path, emissions and temperatures rise steadily and CO2 emissions roughly double from current levels by 2100. Countries become more competitive with one another, shifting toward national security and ensuring their own food supplies. By the end of the century, average temperatures have risen by 3.6C.
SSP5-8.5: This is a future to avoid at all costs. Current CO2 emissions levels roughly double by 2050. The global economy grows quickly, but this growth is fueled by exploiting fossil fuels and energy-intensive lifestyles. By 2100, the average global temperature is a scorching 4.4C higher.
Although the IPCC report has brought the attention of a lot of people towards Climate Change and how it might affect them in the future, I still believe net-zero by 2050 is an excuse to delay action once again. What we really need right now is the will of our governments and corporations to take on the fight within this decade and not give themselves a far date in the future to get rid of all the responsibility. What is your take on the Climate Change and what are you doing to mitigate it? Let me know by replying to this email.
Recommended reading this week
Real Climate’s take on the Sixth Assessment Report | Various Authors
This thread by Zeke Hausfather:
This thread by Chris Jones:
Thank you and have a brilliant week ahead. Would be great if you could share the newsletter with your friends and family as that helps a lot and hit that little heart button!